Prediction Market Expert

Prediction Market Expert (AI Research)

About the Role

We're looking for sharp, analytically minded individuals who thrive on forecasting real-world outcomes. In this remote AI research role, you'll apply structured probabilistic thinking to evaluate major events — from geopolitical developments to financial and industry shifts — helping train the next generation of AI models to reason more accurately about the world.

If you follow prediction markets, track news closely, or simply love thinking in probabilities, this role was built for you.

• Type: Hourly Contract
• Location: Remote
• Commitment: Flexible hours, work on your own schedule

What You'll Do

• Assess and forecast the likelihood of real-world, industry, and market events
• Assign well-calibrated probability estimates backed by structured reasoning
• Analyze current events, public data, and emerging intelligence signals
• Provide clear, written explanations for your forecasts and probability assignments
• Review and annotate prediction-related data with high accuracy and consistency
• Adapt your analysis as news cycles evolve and new information becomes available

Who You Are

• Strong probabilistic thinker — you naturally reason in likelihoods, not absolutes
• Up to date on current events across politics, markets, technology, and global affairs
• Able to articulate your reasoning clearly and concisely in writing
• Detail-oriented with a high standard for analytical consistency
• Comfortable working independently and managing your own time
• Familiarity with platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi is a plus — but not required

Nice to Have

• Background in economics, finance, political science, statistics, or a related field
• Prior experience in forecasting, intelligence analysis, or research roles
• Active participation in prediction markets or forecasting communities
• Knowledge of Bayesian reasoning or formal probability frameworks

Why Join Us

• Work on cutting-edge AI research projects with real-world relevance
• Fully remote and asynchronous — work when and where you want
• Freelance autonomy with the variety of an ever-changing news landscape
• Your forecasts and reasoning directly improve how AI models understand uncertainty
• Potential for ongoing work and contract extension based on performance